In the post-financial tsunami era, countries implement financial and monetary measures to stimulate the economy. Since nations such as China, the US and Japan have seen economy expanding instead of contracting, the financial tsunami is all but behind us.

根据全球半导体贸易统计组织（WSTS）预估，2009年全球半导体市场营收达2201亿美元，较2008年衰退11.5％。另外，市场研究机构Gartner指出，电子终端产品出货于2009年第二季开始复苏并向上修正。原预估2009年半导体营收衰退22.4％的预估，修正为衰退17％，且2010年可望恢复到正成长10.3％。而另一家市调机构IDC更乐观地预测，2010年成长率为19.9％。

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) expects the global semiconductor market to contract 11.5% from 2009 to US$ 22.01 billion in 2009. Gartner indicates electronic terminal product shipments started to recover and picked up steam in the second quarter of 2009. With revision of the 22.4% decline figure to 17.0% for 2009, the market research company expects 10.3% growth for 2010. IDC, another market research company is even more positive as it predicts 19.9% growth for 2010.

展望2010年，Gartner预估终端行动装置将使今年全球PC市场年成长达12.6％，另外如电子书、Windows 7操作系统引领换机潮、触控应用等，在节能、减碳发展趋势下，促使驱动IC、控制IC、电源管理IC带动设计、芯片代工及封测的业务量。

Gartner expects the world PC market to grow by 12.6% in 2010, bolstered by mobile terminals. In addition, e-book reader, the replacement-driving Windows 7 operating system and touchscreen applications, coupled with the green trend will propel driver IC, control IC and power management IC developments, which will in turn help the chip design, sourcing and test & packaging businesses.

《图一 e-book reader, the replacement-driving Windows 7 operating system and touchscreen applications, coupled with the green trend will propel driver IC, control IC and power management IC developments.》

市调机构iSuppli则预测，虽然半导体产业已经逐渐有复苏的迹象，预期到2010年还能出现连续季度成长的趋势。但必须等到2011年或2012年才会恢复整体半导体销售额的水平。

The market research company iSuppli predicts though the semiconductor industry has shown encouraging signs of recovery and sequential quarterly increases in revenue will continue into 2010, semiconductor revenues will not be back to pre-recessionary levels until the 2011 or 2012.

2010年半导体产业成长20％

Semiconductor industry to grow by 20% in 2010

根据Gartner最新的产业展望报告指出，2010年全球半导体营收将可达2760亿美元，较2009年的2310亿美元成长19.9％。Gartner表示，尽管2009年半导体产业销售年成长率衰退9.6％，但2010年则已展现强劲成长的明确迹象，预期2010年的成长幅度可达近20％。

Gartner’s new industrial outlook expects worldwide semiconductor revenue to increase to US$ 276 billion in 2010, up 19.9% from US$ 231 billion in 2009. According to Gartner, while the semiconductor market declined 9.6% in 2009, there are strong signs indicating worldwide semiconductor revenue will grow some 20% in 2010.

另外，Gartner指出，PC和内存为2010年半导体产业营收成长的主要动力，其中DRAM价格上涨与PC需求强劲，将带动2010年DRAM营收成长逾55％，使得DRAM成为至今成长最为快速的设备。Gartner进一步预期，半导体产业直至2014年都将持续成长，届时营收可望达到3040亿美元。

Furthermore, Garner says PCs and memory are the primary drivers for semiconductor revenue growth in 2010 as rising DRAM prices coupled with strong PC demand will lead to over 55% DRAM revenue growth in 2010, making DRAM the fastest growing device type by far. The company also expects the semiconductor industry to show continued growth through 2014 when the market is forecast to total US$ 304 billion.

2009年谷底反弹后 台湾半导体产业再出发

Taiwan semiconductor industry’s 2009 rebound

根据经济部工业局表示，2009年台湾半导体产业产值为1兆2382亿元，较2008年衰退8.1％，其中IC设计产业产值成长3.1％，晶圆代工产业产值衰退7.9％，IC封装产业产值衰退10.1％，IC测试业产值衰退9.7％。对比全球半导体市场11.5％衰退程度，显示台湾累积之半导体产业技术在国际竞争能力中，确可发挥经济复苏动能之潜力。

According to the Industrial Development Bureau, Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA), Taiwan semiconductor industry output shrank 8.1% to NT$ 1,238.2 billion in 2009. The IC design sector grew 3.1% while the IC design industry contracted 7.9%, wafer foundry services down 7.9%, IC packaging down 10.1% and IC test down 9.7%. In comparison with the 11.5% decline for world semiconductor market, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry has definitely built up know-how in a competitive world market, which can be a potential recovery driver.

《图二 PCs and memory are the primary drivers for semiconductor revenue growth in 2010 as rising DRAM prices》

面对金融风暴影响，各国政府努力从各种财政及货币等振兴经济方案刺激市场，加上中国、日本、美国等主要经济活动已从衰退回复到扩张阶段，2009年全球经济情势已逐步改善。

In light of the financial tsunami, governments implement financial and monetary measures to stimulate the economy. Countries such as China, the US and Japan have seen economy expanding instead of contracting. The world economy was on the road to recovery in 2009.

回顾2009年，台湾半导体产业有触控产品、小型NB、智能型手机及电子书等电子产品市场应用与开发需求带动，接单状况有所改善。另外一方面，政府亦积极关注地球暖化造成的生态危机，掌握环保、节能运用上之趋势与脉动，同时鼓励半导体产业朝向制程微缩化进程迈进，带动整体上、下游产业链的持续发展。从晶圆代工业者不断藉由材料技术的突破以及组件结构的改良，导入先进制程并演进至45、40奈米制程优化技术成果来看，已成为支持半导体产业经济持续成长，抢占未来国际竞争制高点注入新的动力。

In retrospect, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry saw improved orders driven by the demand for electronic applications and developments such as touchscreen products, compact notebook computers, smartphones and e-book readers in 2009. On the other hand, the Taiwan government actively addressed the ecological crisis resulted from global warming; kept track of the green trends and developments; and urged the semiconductor industry to adopt ever-finer processes in an effort to drive the continuing development of the ecosystem.Given that wafer foundries have introduced optimized technology for 40nm and 50nm processes with breakthrough material technology and improved device architecture, they have become the new force behind Taiwan semiconductor industry’s sustained growth and future advantage in a competitive international market.

汽车电子在中国一枝独秀呈正成长

Automotive electronics – the only growing semiconductor segment in China

至于中国大陆，根据iSuppli研究，中国半导体市场从2008年的729亿美元到2009年时下降为680亿美元，年成长率衰退6.7％。虽然这个数值远低于过去中国每年半导体市场值都是成长的态势，可是却比全球半导体预计衰退16.5％好上许多。

An iSuppli study indicates China’s semiconductor market shrank 6.7% from US$ 72.9 billion in 2008 to US$ 68 billion in 2009. Though it was in stark contrast to the continuing annual growth of the past, the market did much better than the estimated 16.5% decline for the world semiconductor industry.

汽车电子则是中国市场2009年唯一在半导体需求呈现成长的领域。iSuppli统计，2009年汽车电子芯片销售额达20亿美元，比2008年成长11％。iSuppli也预测，2010年中国半导体市场将成长17.8％，达801亿美元。无论是汽车、消费性电子、通讯或个人计算机都将带动中国半导体市场的成长。

In 2009, automotive electronics was the only semiconductor segment in China with increasing demand. iSuppli expects the automotive electronics chip revenue to rise 11% to US$ 2 billion in 2009. iSuppli also predicts China’s semiconductor market will grow 17.8% to US$ 80.1 billion with drivers including automobile, consumer electronics, communication and personal computer.

2010年半导体产业资本支出增51％

Semiconductor industry to increase capital expenditure by 51% in 2010

市调公司IC Insights预计，今年半导体产业资本支出中的2/3，将由支出前十名的公司包揽，包括Samsung、Intel、TSMC和Toshiba。今年支出前十名的厂商投资总额预计成长67％，而产业整体支出成长率预计为51％。

The market research company IC Insights predicts the top 10 capital expenditure spenders will account for two thirds of capital expenditures in 2010, including Samsung, Intel, TSMC and Toshiba. The top 10 players are expected to increase their spending by 67% in 2010, compared with a 51% increase expected for the total semiconductor industry.

IC Insights总裁Bill McClean指出，如果不算Intel，排名前十名中的其他9家公司支出，也将成长91％。尽管许多公司计划在2010年将产能提高一倍，但仍然无法阻止IC价格的上涨和供货短缺的状况发生，特别是在下半年。

"If Intel were excluded, the remaining nine companies in the top 10 ranking would increase their spending by 91% this year," said Bill McClean, president of IC Insights. However, while many companies are planning to more than double their capital outlays this year, they will not be able to prevent rising IC prices and shortages from occurring, especially during the second half of the year.

《图三 Samsung, Intel, TSMC and Toshiba. The top 10 players are expected to increase their spending by 67% in 2010》

目前大型厂商正在逐渐提高资本支出所占的比重。2005年，这十家公司的支出仅占整体半导体产业的55％，但今年已达66％。预计三星很可能成为2010年资本支出最大的厂商。

The largest companies are gradually accounting for the lion's share of investments. In 2005, the 10 companies accounted for 55% of all spending, compared with 66% this year. Samsung Electronics is likely to become the largest spender in 2010.

相较之下，Intel在提升产能方面就显得老神在在。Intel目前拥有MPU（计算机微处理器）市场85％的市占率，该公司深知MPU市场急需扩增产能，但目前不太会出现过度投资的状况。这是因为Intel和AMD都希望MPU短缺的状态可以再维持一段时间，如此一来，这两家处理器大厂将可以持续享有稳定的出货价格。

“Intel, by contrast, is in no rush to add significant capacity. Considering that the company holds about 85% of the total microprocessor unit (MPU) market, it knows how much MPU capacity is really needed and will not overspend. Expect MPUs to remain relatively scarce this year as Intel and AMD would like to enjoy firming average selling prices for a while longer,” he said.

台积电（TSMC）则是受到了来自全球晶圆（Global Foundries）的市场挑战，因此计划大幅提高产能，预计今年产能将增加79％。2010年48亿美元的预算提升，将是TSMC自2000年以来最高的一次。

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) is being spurred by the challenge from GlobalFoundries. TSMC is significantly ramping up its capital spending plans, planning a 79% increase in capital outlays this year. McClean said "the US$ 4.8 billion budget for 2010 is the highest level of spending by TSMC since 2000."

绿色革命最具潜力

Green revolution shows most potential

至于2010年的热门半导体议题，全球陆续走向绿色革命，其中三个广受大众关注的议题包括能源效率、照明效率及太阳能等。因此预期2010年最具发展潜力的应用也将离不开这三大主题，例如替代性能源、消费性行动装置、无线通信基础设施、电动车与油电混合车电源管理装置及LED照明系统等，都将在今年持续发光发热。

With the ongoing green revolution, the public are most concerned with three issues: energy efficiency, lighting efficiency and solar power. Consequently, the top applications for 2010 should center on them. Alternative energy, consumer mobile devices, wireless infrastructure, power management device for electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles and LED lighting will continue to glow brightly this year.